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KABUL — More Afghans fled the country and sought asylum abroad in 2011 than in any other year since the start of the decade-long war, suggesting that many are looking for their own exit strategy as international troops prepare to withdraw. From January to November, more than 30,000 Afghans applied for political asylum worldwide, a 25 percent increase over the same period the previous year and more than triple the level of just four years ago, according to U.N. statistics obtained by The Associated Press ahead of their publication later this year. Many Afghans are turning to a thriving and increasingly sophisticated human smuggling industry to get themselves — or in most cases, their sons — out of the country. They pay anywhere from a few hundred dollars to cross into Iran or Pakistan to more $25,000 for fake papers and flights to places including London or Stockholm. Thousands of refugees also return each year, but their numbers have been dwindling as the asylum applications rise. Both trends highlight worries among Afghans about what might happen after 2014, when American and other NATO troops turn security over to the Afghan army and police. The true numbers of people leaving is likely even higher — because those who are successfully smuggled abroad often melt into an underground economy. Still, the jump in a rough indicator like asylum seekers suggests the total numbers are also on the rise. Smuggling people out of Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan is a $1 billion-per-year criminal enterprise, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime estimates. Those who pay to leave often face a risky journey and detention abroad because many developed countries now see many Afghans who flee as illegal economic migrants, not political refugees. Still, the business finds an eager clientele in Afghans such as Ahmad, an unemployed 20-year-old in Kabul. He has agreed to pay a smuggler $400 to take him over the Iranian border, where he hopes to find work and save up to move on to Europe in a few years. He has no money, but his smuggler is giving him credit — he’ll have a month to pay up once he’s in Iran. “I don’t think anything will improve in three or five years, so it’s better to leave now,” said Ahmad, who expects to leave for Iran within a few weeks. He asked to be identified only by his first name for fear of being arrested. Ahmad’s family fled to Iran during the Taliban’s late 1990s rule and returned full of hope after the regime fell. But now, he sees no future in his homeland. “If foreign troops leave, the situation will only get worse,” he said. That’s a view shared by many. Tajma Kurt, who manages an International Organization for Migration program helping Afghans who have returned home, says she’s noticed a marked change in ordinary Afghans’ outlook since roughly 2007, when the Taliban insurgency began to gain strength and violent attacks increased. “Before, they were looking for a job, discussing buying a house or whatever,” Kurt said. “Now, they are all thinking of leaving because the situation has deteriorated dramatically.” Devastated by decades of war, Afghanistan is already the world’s biggest source of refugees, with more than 3 million of its total population of 30 million still outside the country, most in Iran and Pakistan, according to the office of the U.N. High Commissioner of Refugees and the Afghan government. “Who knows what happens when foreign troops leave Afghanistan? Is it going to get better or worse? Who knows what happens with the foreign aid to Afghanistan — going down or increasing?” said Abdul Samad Hami, deputy minister of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation. Some Afghans fear that once most foreign troops leave, the Taliban will take over more territory and civil war could erupt along ethnic lines, as it did in the 1990s. Others worry the Afghan economy will collapse if foreign aid dries up. Numbers3 million Afghans who are refugees out of a population of 30 million, more than any other country 60,000 Refugees who returned to Afghanistan in 2011, about half as many as in 2010 30,407 Afghans who sought asylum in 2011
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